* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/27/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 74 74 76 76 80 68 48 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 74 74 76 76 80 68 48 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 74 75 80 84 70 50 35 27 27 30 36 46 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 9 6 7 20 38 57 56 62 48 28 7 7 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 3 0 -1 4 8 11 -2 -3 0 -3 -1 -3 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 118 156 180 195 202 228 215 216 219 210 213 230 185 184 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 24.0 17.7 15.2 13.6 13.3 12.4 12.2 9.3 10.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 128 127 129 130 105 80 74 72 71 70 69 67 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 117 111 112 115 119 97 75 71 69 68 67 67 66 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.1 -50.7 -51.1 -50.6 -50.1 -48.6 -49.1 -49.4 -50.2 -50.6 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.0 2.5 2.4 2.2 3.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 44 45 45 46 44 42 52 48 52 51 63 64 57 61 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 32 32 31 33 37 47 45 36 27 26 24 22 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 38 26 0 11 39 155 161 146 171 182 179 193 145 122 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 24 31 8 5 70 73 93 49 40 92 85 -6 0 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 2 1 4 0 0 -9 -12 -60 -53 -133 -56 -27 1 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 642 585 544 582 660 662 569 311 726 1204 1379 1163 933 852 593 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.6 32.7 33.9 35.0 37.7 41.1 45.0 48.6 52.0 55.6 59.5 62.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.0 71.5 71.0 69.8 68.5 63.7 57.0 49.9 43.1 36.9 31.3 26.1 19.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 15 20 27 32 31 28 25 24 23 21 20 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 16 6 7 10 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -19. -23. -28. -33. -38. -41. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -12. -18. -23. -26. -26. -27. -27. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -11. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 4. 16. 14. 2. -12. -14. -17. -20. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 10. -2. -22. -44. -51. -57. -63. -65. -68. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 30.4 72.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.16 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 599.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 13.0% 9.4% 7.6% 6.9% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.5% 3.9% 2.9% 2.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/27/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 5( 12) 5( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 73 74 74 76 76 80 68 48 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 70 71 71 73 73 77 65 45 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 67 69 69 73 61 41 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 62 62 66 54 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT