* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/26/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 82 79 74 63 48 36 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 82 79 74 63 48 36 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 77 72 65 53 42 33 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 1 2 0 3 5 7 8 10 6 10 9 12 11 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 4 6 5 3 2 3 3 5 8 6 SHEAR DIR 15 26 209 330 175 158 156 202 194 216 219 238 235 244 240 244 244 SST (C) 26.5 25.9 25.0 24.0 23.4 21.8 20.5 21.7 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.7 23.2 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 124 114 104 97 81 67 78 81 80 80 80 82 84 87 92 96 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 67 67 63 62 56 52 45 39 34 33 31 31 29 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 42 41 40 39 37 34 30 27 24 20 17 13 11 9 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 110 108 91 73 68 40 17 6 -9 0 -2 -5 2 2 5 3 6 200 MB DIV 31 28 4 -16 -14 9 3 13 9 8 5 4 -10 -7 -13 -6 -14 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -2 3 6 8 7 16 12 7 1 1 0 -3 -3 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 873 927 971 1027 1096 1269 1299 1310 1301 1249 1246 1264 1301 1359 1454 1573 1699 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.6 23.1 24.3 25.8 27.2 28.6 29.7 30.3 30.4 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.7 121.0 122.2 123.4 124.6 127.1 129.2 131.0 132.1 132.8 133.2 133.5 133.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 13 11 9 8 5 3 1 2 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -24. -32. -38. -44. -49. -54. -58. -62. -66. -70. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -18. -25. -31. -35. -38. -38. -36. -34. -32. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -11. -22. -37. -49. -59. -68. -76. -81. -84. -87. -90. -94. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.9 119.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/26/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 438.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 4.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 7.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/26/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##