* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/26/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 72 75 77 78 78 78 80 70 48 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 68 72 75 77 78 78 78 80 70 48 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 72 74 77 81 84 68 50 35 27 26 28 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 2 7 7 9 20 39 59 68 68 57 52 41 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 0 3 0 4 11 11 -3 -8 -1 -4 -1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 267 180 156 144 186 210 229 221 211 210 214 216 219 240 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.8 27.9 26.7 24.0 16.3 16.9 13.9 12.7 12.7 13.2 12.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 145 138 136 139 127 104 77 77 72 70 69 68 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 127 120 119 125 116 96 73 73 70 68 66 65 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -50.1 -48.7 -48.6 -49.6 -49.5 -49.3 -49.9 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 0.1 0.8 1.9 4.1 2.5 1.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 42 45 45 48 46 43 53 51 51 43 45 45 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 32 33 33 32 32 36 44 45 36 30 29 25 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 83 54 45 19 12 59 163 173 185 212 216 199 179 72 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 22 -8 31 35 21 64 58 77 26 76 88 84 35 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 11 3 3 8 -6 -18 -3 1 -55 -80 -58 -22 -34 -19 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 865 783 698 662 635 764 682 594 469 910 1389 1209 983 772 594 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 29.4 30.7 31.9 33.0 35.3 38.2 41.4 44.8 48.3 52.1 55.9 58.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.4 71.1 70.8 70.2 69.6 66.7 61.4 54.7 47.7 40.6 34.2 28.6 23.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 21 28 30 31 29 26 22 17 15 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 31 29 14 9 18 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -25. -29. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. -4. -12. -20. -27. -34. -42. -46. -48. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. 3. 13. 14. 2. -7. -9. -16. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 15. 5. -17. -35. -47. -64. -72. -76. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 28.1 71.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 534.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.45 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 16.9% 11.7% 9.4% 9.1% 11.7% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 10.3% 8.5% 4.4% 1.2% 4.7% 1.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 9.2% 6.8% 4.7% 3.4% 5.5% 4.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 6( 12) 6( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 72 75 77 78 78 78 80 70 48 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 68 71 73 74 74 74 76 66 44 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 66 67 67 67 69 59 37 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 58 58 58 60 50 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT