* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 76 81 86 89 91 94 99 97 78 53 27 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 76 81 86 89 91 94 99 97 78 53 27 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 71 77 82 86 89 87 87 89 83 65 46 34 29 29 33 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 18 10 8 6 9 5 23 48 68 55 54 44 25 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 1 0 3 7 13 16 -2 -5 -4 0 1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 359 320 301 297 292 103 124 154 228 235 213 198 209 218 236 229 219 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 27.7 27.8 27.3 26.4 22.0 19.2 17.1 12.7 13.8 13.4 12.2 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 157 156 156 134 137 132 123 93 82 77 71 72 70 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 140 140 138 138 118 122 120 112 86 77 73 69 69 67 66 65 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 -50.3 -49.1 -48.2 -49.0 -49.6 -50.9 -52.1 -53.3 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.2 2.8 2.8 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 45 46 47 45 45 48 49 40 44 47 52 53 54 49 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 29 30 33 33 33 33 37 44 50 43 35 26 21 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 120 100 100 97 75 29 -16 13 84 198 229 224 179 133 34 39 37 200 MB DIV 64 47 43 38 -12 23 20 52 30 89 63 79 88 87 62 -68 -82 700-850 TADV 9 8 18 19 10 7 -7 2 -19 -14 -27 -44 -59 -40 -7 9 0 LAND (KM) 571 685 800 917 844 782 915 875 792 578 735 1143 1407 976 765 597 627 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 26.0 27.0 28.1 29.2 31.5 33.7 36.1 38.9 41.9 45.3 48.9 52.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.9 71.5 71.2 70.8 70.4 68.9 66.0 62.0 56.7 50.3 43.8 37.4 31.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 11 12 13 14 19 23 27 29 28 28 27 25 21 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 34 51 48 33 31 10 12 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 37.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. -0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. -6. -13. -20. -26. -30. -30. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 11. 20. 28. 18. 6. -7. -13. -15. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 29. 34. 32. 13. -12. -38. -52. -56. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.0 71.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 37.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 436.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 5.0% 3.1% 1.7% 0.4% 1.7% 2.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 4.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 3.9% 4.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/26/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 8( 13) 10( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 73 76 81 86 89 91 94 99 97 78 53 27 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 68 71 76 81 84 86 89 94 92 73 48 22 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 69 74 77 79 82 87 85 66 41 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 60 65 68 70 73 78 76 57 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT