* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 61 66 73 80 83 87 88 86 77 53 28 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 61 66 73 80 83 87 88 86 77 53 28 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 60 65 70 72 77 82 80 66 50 37 30 29 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 19 18 13 6 11 15 25 43 63 66 67 66 72 42 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 1 2 -1 2 0 -2 9 13 7 -4 -7 -8 -9 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 6 342 312 306 284 260 165 199 211 241 226 209 200 207 210 221 300 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 28.3 27.8 27.6 26.6 23.7 18.3 16.6 16.3 13.6 12.8 13.0 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 160 160 157 157 142 136 135 125 102 80 75 74 69 67 67 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 141 142 138 138 125 120 121 115 93 75 71 69 66 64 64 64 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -51.3 -51.5 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.0 -49.2 -49.7 -49.9 -50.7 -50.9 -52.9 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.6 0.4 1.8 2.0 2.5 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 49 44 43 43 40 41 43 43 43 49 43 40 36 28 32 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 26 28 30 31 32 31 34 38 42 44 37 30 27 27 21 850 MB ENV VOR 128 132 108 102 94 59 26 17 67 174 218 206 200 163 117 18 -40 200 MB DIV 82 62 39 41 50 -9 7 7 69 76 100 64 50 44 10 10 2 700-850 TADV 6 11 12 15 27 6 3 -13 2 24 12 -38 -73 -38 -24 -40 2 LAND (KM) 538 631 722 830 853 734 756 850 789 656 530 819 1199 1451 1134 886 677 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.8 26.6 27.6 28.5 30.7 32.9 35.1 37.7 40.8 44.0 47.3 50.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.6 72.3 72.0 71.6 71.3 70.3 68.2 65.0 60.1 53.6 47.5 41.9 36.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 10 11 13 15 20 27 28 27 24 20 17 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 32 47 65 43 34 29 9 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 9. 7. 4. 0. -3. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. -1. -9. -19. -29. -40. -51. -56. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 12. 17. 23. 25. 14. 3. -1. -1. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 23. 30. 33. 37. 38. 36. 27. 3. -22. -39. -46. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.0 72.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 325.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 14.7% 9.8% 7.3% 6.7% 10.4% 12.5% 14.2% Logistic: 1.1% 1.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.6% 3.7% 2.6% 2.2% 3.6% 4.3% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/25/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 57 61 66 73 80 83 87 88 86 77 53 28 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 53 57 62 69 76 79 83 84 82 73 49 24 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 55 62 69 72 76 77 75 66 42 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 52 59 62 66 67 65 56 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT