* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 27 26 23 21 19 21 23 24 24 24 26 28 31 35 V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 27 26 23 21 19 21 23 24 24 24 26 28 31 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 26 24 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 19 23 23 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 2 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 133 117 110 105 105 88 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 133 135 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -50.8 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 45 48 50 55 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 39 39 43 94 165 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 30 43 62 68 35 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 0 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1835 1796 1757 1744 1731 1704 1663 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.6 16.0 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.8 128.2 127.6 127.2 126.7 125.7 124.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 11 13 10 8 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. 22. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -9. -12. -14. -16. -14. -12. -11. -11. -11. -9. -7. -4. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.3 128.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/25/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.03 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.75 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 7.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/25/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##