* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/24/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 54 58 62 64 65 65 69 71 75 77 74 67 59 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 54 58 62 64 65 65 69 71 75 77 74 67 59 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 51 54 59 61 60 59 58 60 65 72 75 65 52 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 16 18 16 14 15 17 6 11 15 19 32 52 60 52 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 6 5 8 6 6 8 4 -1 0 5 6 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 347 347 346 360 16 339 335 321 318 274 220 242 234 250 238 226 216 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.1 27.3 27.3 27.5 26.7 25.9 25.4 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 154 154 155 157 154 147 138 129 130 133 124 116 111 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 132 132 131 132 135 130 124 117 111 113 117 109 102 97 92 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -50.7 -51.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 67 61 56 53 43 45 43 45 43 47 42 34 23 23 29 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 18 20 21 20 20 19 21 23 28 33 35 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 61 85 92 100 118 97 72 38 32 3 27 39 84 145 88 46 8 200 MB DIV 55 68 71 54 63 5 12 49 55 29 37 34 16 -7 -36 -38 -32 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 2 4 1 4 0 4 8 11 -7 -6 -21 -44 -41 -13 LAND (KM) 431 463 493 528 564 622 596 604 530 437 467 665 764 789 834 742 807 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.5 24.9 25.3 25.7 26.5 27.7 29.0 30.4 31.8 33.3 34.7 36.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.1 73.3 73.4 73.5 73.8 74.1 74.4 74.2 73.4 71.5 68.5 64.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 5 7 6 7 9 13 16 18 19 19 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 34 35 37 34 36 59 25 16 6 10 17 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -10. -18. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 16. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 29. 31. 35. 37. 34. 27. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.1 73.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/24/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.58 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 16.1% 10.9% 8.0% 7.2% 10.2% 10.6% 14.2% Logistic: 2.4% 7.5% 4.5% 2.1% 0.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 8.0% 5.2% 3.4% 2.5% 4.0% 3.9% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/24/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/24/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 48 51 54 58 62 64 65 65 69 71 75 77 74 67 59 18HR AGO 40 39 43 46 49 53 57 59 60 60 64 66 70 72 69 62 54 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 42 46 50 52 53 53 57 59 63 65 62 55 47 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 37 41 43 44 44 48 50 54 56 53 46 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT