* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL042014 08/24/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 49 53 57 63 70 71 70 69 69 68 66 66 66 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 49 53 57 63 70 71 70 69 69 68 66 66 66 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 49 52 56 59 61 61 60 58 56 56 58 59 58 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 10 15 19 17 18 18 13 15 12 11 8 18 31 51 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 1 5 1 4 2 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 6 1 6 SHEAR DIR 340 358 350 342 355 335 331 291 309 279 295 274 206 225 260 287 308 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.6 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.3 25.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 154 154 154 157 159 154 144 132 132 129 128 120 109 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 133 132 131 132 135 136 131 122 113 115 114 113 105 96 89 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -52.4 -52.6 -53.2 -53.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -55.2 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 6 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 64 66 61 57 49 41 32 24 21 21 27 38 37 32 23 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 17 18 20 21 20 17 15 13 12 11 14 18 850 MB ENV VOR 18 49 79 87 93 108 69 85 4 -29 -22 -38 -35 -14 -10 -22 -59 200 MB DIV 15 39 71 55 52 31 -8 -3 -3 -16 0 -12 -13 -36 -36 -68 -51 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 4 4 0 6 3 1 -1 0 2 -2 -22 -35 -44 -18 LAND (KM) 353 387 421 449 479 554 581 534 559 457 403 505 766 777 804 800 741 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.8 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.7 26.7 28.0 29.4 30.9 32.3 33.6 35.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.2 73.4 73.5 73.6 73.8 74.2 74.8 75.0 74.7 73.3 70.8 67.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 11 14 18 20 19 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 38 36 35 35 35 36 31 44 46 23 11 8 11 11 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. -9. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 17. 23. 30. 31. 30. 29. 29. 28. 26. 26. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.3 73.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/24/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.58 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 13.1% 8.9% 6.6% 5.6% 8.9% 9.8% 14.4% Logistic: 1.3% 3.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.6% 3.6% 2.4% 1.9% 3.3% 3.6% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/24/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 CRISTOBAL 08/24/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 47 49 53 57 63 70 71 70 69 69 68 66 66 66 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 45 49 53 59 66 67 66 65 65 64 62 62 62 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 44 48 54 61 62 61 60 60 59 57 57 57 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 36 40 46 53 54 53 52 52 51 49 49 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT