* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042014 08/24/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 46 53 58 60 67 71 78 82 85 84 85 82 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 46 53 58 60 67 71 78 82 85 84 85 82 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 45 46 49 55 60 65 68 69 68 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 10 7 13 13 14 6 14 2 12 13 18 19 21 21 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 4 1 7 4 9 4 10 2 -2 -3 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 298 344 8 348 343 359 341 322 328 280 282 251 265 255 275 275 282 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 154 154 154 155 160 161 155 149 138 128 130 132 131 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 135 133 132 132 133 138 138 132 126 117 110 112 113 111 106 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 8 9 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 65 59 54 48 49 40 38 32 29 24 27 31 32 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 16 20 21 21 19 21 22 24 26 28 29 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 29 21 58 89 87 120 86 86 43 33 16 36 -4 -43 -37 -33 -38 200 MB DIV 40 27 57 63 39 39 17 3 14 29 -6 2 -12 -16 0 10 -4 700-850 TADV -4 0 3 2 2 5 2 7 3 8 0 -1 -3 4 1 0 11 LAND (KM) 290 308 334 355 380 424 483 423 373 380 408 332 310 452 684 698 678 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.7 25.5 26.5 27.7 29.0 30.3 31.8 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.4 73.8 74.0 74.3 74.6 75.1 75.8 76.4 76.8 76.5 75.5 73.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 3 5 6 7 6 7 9 12 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 41 40 39 39 40 42 41 61 49 48 34 23 8 9 22 21 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. 5. 5. 8. 9. 11. 10. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 23. 28. 30. 37. 41. 48. 52. 55. 54. 55. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.6 73.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042014 FOUR 08/24/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.68 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.3% 8.9% 6.5% 6.0% 8.7% 9.2% 14.2% Logistic: 2.8% 12.1% 7.6% 4.9% 1.4% 4.3% 2.6% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.5% 8.5% 5.6% 3.8% 2.5% 4.4% 4.0% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042014 FOUR 08/24/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042014 FOUR 08/24/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 46 53 58 60 67 71 78 82 85 84 85 82 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 43 50 55 57 64 68 75 79 82 81 82 79 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 38 45 50 52 59 63 70 74 77 76 77 74 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 36 41 43 50 54 61 65 68 67 68 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT