* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/23/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 91 100 109 123 128 121 107 93 76 61 49 40 34 29 24 V (KT) LAND 75 82 91 100 109 123 128 121 107 93 76 61 49 40 34 29 24 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 89 96 104 118 123 111 94 77 61 47 37 29 24 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 13 13 10 11 13 22 21 16 7 4 3 2 2 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 1 3 3 0 1 0 1 0 5 4 9 7 1 SHEAR DIR 8 358 12 14 27 59 40 40 44 39 40 144 39 163 353 208 240 SST (C) 29.8 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.4 28.9 28.4 26.9 26.2 25.6 23.7 22.5 22.0 21.8 22.2 21.9 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 156 157 159 153 148 133 126 120 101 88 82 80 83 79 79 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.0 -50.4 -49.9 -49.7 -49.4 -49.5 -49.2 -49.0 -49.1 -49.2 -49.1 -49.3 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 84 83 82 81 79 82 80 76 71 68 66 64 58 52 41 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 33 36 38 40 45 49 49 46 43 38 34 30 27 23 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 47 61 62 61 73 91 107 129 162 151 123 101 65 47 41 42 43 200 MB DIV 118 132 85 64 86 100 124 88 25 24 -6 -1 -20 3 15 -1 -9 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -10 -6 -5 -3 0 5 -2 -6 0 2 5 8 3 -1 -7 LAND (KM) 537 561 606 659 719 718 718 746 778 871 921 1058 1161 1140 1135 1134 1102 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 17.0 18.0 19.2 20.4 21.5 22.9 24.4 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.1 109.1 110.1 111.0 112.8 114.5 116.3 118.2 120.2 122.4 124.9 127.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 13 13 11 10 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 50 29 23 24 31 29 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 80.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -30. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 19. 23. 23. 18. 11. 6. 0. -4. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 25. 34. 48. 53. 46. 32. 18. 1. -14. -26. -35. -41. -46. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.9 107.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/23/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.35 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -48.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.96 -6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.5% 38.3% 21.4% 16.2% 11.6% 16.7% 13.3% 8.2% Logistic: 13.0% 43.1% 12.1% 7.0% 4.3% 6.0% 1.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 9.5% 62.4% 52.7% 34.4% 17.5% 34.7% 8.7% 0.8% Consensus: 15.3% 48.0% 28.7% 19.2% 11.1% 19.1% 7.9% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/23/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##