* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/23/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 61 57 53 45 38 32 29 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 66 61 57 53 45 38 32 29 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 68 64 60 56 49 43 38 36 33 30 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 16 18 20 15 12 10 13 12 17 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 0 -1 0 -2 1 -1 3 0 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 86 89 100 96 101 115 98 110 102 135 113 118 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.1 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.6 24.8 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 119 119 122 123 121 115 110 106 105 107 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -50.9 -49.7 -49.4 -49.2 -49.3 -49.0 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 50 48 49 49 48 43 41 40 42 40 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 14 14 13 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 65 76 84 82 94 91 88 84 122 157 156 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 2 -9 -6 15 -3 7 21 18 18 -4 -17 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 -2 0 0 0 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2228 2181 2100 2015 1930 1794 1726 1689 1691 1727 1776 1825 1860 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.9 20.3 20.6 20.7 20.8 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.8 133.1 132.4 131.6 130.8 129.6 129.1 129.2 129.5 130.1 130.7 131.3 131.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -22. -25. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -17. -25. -32. -38. -41. -41. -45. -50. -55. -56. -56. -53. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.2 133.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/23/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 515.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/23/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##