* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132014 08/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 55 65 77 88 107 119 126 129 128 122 115 104 92 82 75 68 V (KT) LAND 45 55 65 77 88 107 119 126 129 128 122 115 104 92 82 75 68 V (KT) LGEM 45 54 64 75 86 110 129 137 133 121 107 94 81 67 54 44 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 15 16 11 13 11 18 14 9 13 13 12 9 5 8 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -2 -1 -3 -4 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 39 53 64 45 24 34 16 37 35 24 28 36 42 85 146 237 202 SST (C) 29.6 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.2 28.5 27.8 27.1 26.4 25.6 23.7 22.3 22.0 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 167 165 162 162 161 157 157 149 142 135 128 120 100 86 83 90 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -51.4 -51.8 -50.6 -50.5 -49.6 -49.3 -48.7 -49.1 -48.7 -49.1 -49.0 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 87 86 86 85 85 82 80 79 77 74 72 69 67 68 68 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 20 23 25 29 35 40 45 48 49 50 48 44 40 35 32 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 38 40 40 59 75 96 110 134 167 176 151 146 129 127 113 200 MB DIV 78 79 111 114 105 148 114 110 99 79 79 47 -3 -14 -4 3 6 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -6 -5 -2 -1 0 -4 3 -2 -5 -9 -3 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 481 496 508 513 533 574 632 713 682 699 734 786 855 914 1059 1183 1238 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.5 18.5 19.6 20.9 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.9 104.1 105.1 106.1 107.9 109.6 111.3 113.1 114.8 116.7 118.7 120.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 48 58 55 57 62 35 23 36 21 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 19. 17. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 19. 30. 40. 46. 47. 45. 38. 30. 23. 17. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 20. 32. 43. 62. 74. 81. 84. 83. 77. 70. 59. 47. 37. 30. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.9 101.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132014 MARIE 08/22/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 17.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 13.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.55 9.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 11.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -43.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.96 -15.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 10.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.53 4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 76% is 6.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 75% is 12.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.5% 75.9% 62.7% 51.3% 41.9% 50.4% 75.3% 55.5% Logistic: 37.5% 76.7% 54.0% 40.3% 43.5% 59.7% 61.5% 47.0% Bayesian: 48.1% 90.6% 90.4% 81.9% 78.6% 94.3% 86.1% 59.9% Consensus: 40.4% 81.0% 69.0% 57.9% 54.7% 68.1% 74.3% 54.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132014 MARIE 08/22/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##