* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 49 44 40 33 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 49 44 40 33 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 45 40 35 31 28 26 23 20 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 5 4 4 9 8 15 21 28 28 34 35 37 37 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 0 2 -2 2 -1 1 -5 -2 -5 -3 -5 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 149 317 296 274 286 246 275 269 255 232 228 218 228 233 235 227 231 SST (C) 24.6 24.4 23.6 21.9 21.2 22.8 22.5 22.6 22.5 23.0 23.4 23.8 24.0 24.2 25.0 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 108 106 98 80 73 89 85 86 86 92 96 100 103 105 113 116 117 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -49.8 -49.4 -48.3 -48.2 -48.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 52 50 49 50 53 52 50 48 48 44 43 40 38 38 38 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 32 30 30 27 23 21 19 17 15 14 15 15 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 94 89 81 60 56 86 102 110 93 79 83 63 45 39 24 10 -14 200 MB DIV 6 7 6 -36 -34 34 -8 6 0 25 6 15 23 15 -8 -5 -3 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 0 -2 0 2 4 5 13 14 22 26 26 23 20 17 LAND (KM) 1118 1136 1160 1192 1230 1294 1292 1315 1355 1429 1482 1587 1719 1824 1678 1534 1426 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.1 25.0 25.8 26.4 27.2 28.1 29.0 29.9 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.9 124.6 125.2 125.9 126.6 127.9 129.1 130.2 131.6 133.3 135.2 137.2 139.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20. -23. -26. -28. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. -0. -4. -8. -14. -19. -26. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -18. -23. -27. -29. -28. -25. -22. -23. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -15. -22. -28. -35. -41. -46. -52. -56. -59. -62. -67. -72. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.8 123.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 434.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/22/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##