* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/21/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 68 67 64 56 47 37 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 68 68 67 64 56 47 37 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 68 69 67 64 56 47 39 33 29 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 4 9 5 6 2 7 9 10 21 21 26 28 32 35 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -4 -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 1 -4 -1 -3 -5 -4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 168 156 134 129 144 150 253 276 290 252 255 236 225 219 223 234 237 SST (C) 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.2 24.9 23.9 21.6 21.9 22.6 22.6 22.6 23.0 23.4 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 118 114 111 101 77 80 87 87 87 91 95 96 98 100 105 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -49.4 -48.8 -48.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 54 58 54 56 56 55 50 46 41 40 37 34 32 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 37 37 35 32 29 26 23 20 18 16 14 11 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 101 113 110 113 111 78 57 113 112 113 102 86 70 66 38 22 -3 200 MB DIV 16 28 57 48 0 15 -11 17 6 25 1 15 9 19 8 11 2 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 1 2 2 0 2 2 4 9 11 5 7 2 3 12 LAND (KM) 1145 1138 1132 1137 1148 1195 1266 1343 1337 1350 1401 1473 1503 1569 1640 1716 1784 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.6 23.7 24.6 25.5 26.4 27.1 27.8 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.5 122.9 123.5 124.1 125.4 126.8 128.1 129.4 130.7 132.1 133.6 135.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -21. -24. -27. -31. -34. -37. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -4. -9. -14. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -25. -28. -28. -28. -29. -29. -28. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. -1. -9. -18. -28. -37. -42. -48. -53. -58. -65. -71. -75. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.7 122.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 384.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 9.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##