* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/21/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 41 42 43 45 46 45 40 34 30 27 26 25 25 26 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 41 42 43 45 46 45 40 34 30 27 26 25 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 39 38 39 39 39 37 33 29 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 16 14 12 7 12 13 15 16 16 11 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -1 1 0 0 1 4 5 6 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 80 81 81 95 93 65 68 93 87 73 54 29 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.3 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 24.4 22.6 22.5 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 126 124 123 121 123 123 122 107 89 88 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 58 53 50 49 46 51 53 55 52 48 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 18 18 19 19 19 18 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 27 22 31 37 39 80 121 122 102 78 46 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 11 16 22 19 39 49 30 21 5 16 -20 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -7 -12 -10 -5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2004 2022 2041 2073 2106 2188 2250 2047 1839 1617 1470 1327 1141 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.8 16.7 17.7 18.9 20.5 22.7 25.4 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.3 136.2 136.0 135.7 135.4 134.5 133.3 131.7 130.2 128.8 128.5 129.1 129.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 6 8 9 10 10 12 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. -0. -4. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. -0. -5. -11. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.7 136.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/21/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/21/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##