* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 53 53 55 55 53 51 46 41 38 34 31 29 28 27 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 53 53 55 55 53 51 46 41 38 34 31 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 49 49 49 49 47 43 38 33 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 21 17 12 7 5 17 17 16 20 11 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 4 2 2 3 6 2 5 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 75 79 73 94 42 70 79 88 77 74 320 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.2 24.2 22.4 22.2 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 129 129 127 124 121 121 116 105 87 86 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.6 -51.6 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 58 53 54 48 48 55 60 59 54 58 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 19 18 19 20 18 17 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 40 35 33 40 31 39 90 116 100 83 73 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 31 24 38 52 27 47 33 45 4 4 -4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 7 5 3 2 2 1 -1 -4 -11 -11 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1985 1994 2004 2033 2061 2131 2227 2142 1913 1661 1512 1337 1182 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.6 16.3 17.3 18.7 20.5 22.8 25.8 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.4 136.4 136.3 136.1 135.8 135.1 134.0 132.5 130.9 129.3 129.0 129.8 130.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 3 5 7 10 11 11 13 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. -4. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.0 136.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/21/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.23 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 18.8% 14.2% 10.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.9% 4.9% 3.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/21/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##