* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 60 61 59 58 58 56 52 47 44 41 35 29 27 26 V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 60 61 59 58 58 56 52 47 44 41 35 29 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 59 59 58 56 54 50 44 38 32 28 25 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 29 23 18 14 10 11 15 17 16 8 5 14 22 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -2 0 5 1 1 5 4 1 -3 -1 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 60 70 79 80 69 97 52 60 81 85 62 259 268 242 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.1 25.9 25.2 24.9 23.2 22.1 22.3 22.8 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 130 131 132 130 123 122 115 113 95 84 86 91 96 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 59 54 51 49 55 60 64 63 59 57 49 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 17 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 26 38 40 34 48 47 69 104 93 78 71 62 42 42 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 13 29 14 9 22 5 55 50 28 4 21 -4 9 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 5 2 0 3 4 3 -2 -2 -10 7 8 12 16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1970 1973 1976 1996 2016 2081 2170 2257 2033 1780 1579 1402 1303 1332 1408 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.3 15.2 15.7 16.6 17.9 19.7 22.0 24.9 27.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.6 136.6 136.6 136.5 136.3 135.7 134.7 133.3 131.7 130.1 129.3 129.6 131.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 6 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -5. -6. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -11. -14. -20. -26. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.8 136.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/20/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.40 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.09 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.0% 16.3% 11.9% 7.8% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 8.0% 5.6% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/20/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##