* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 39 40 42 44 46 48 48 47 42 40 37 35 33 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 39 40 42 44 46 48 48 47 42 40 37 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 40 40 39 39 39 38 38 36 33 30 27 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 7 4 12 14 19 13 17 12 12 15 15 11 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 7 3 4 0 SHEAR DIR 99 123 131 119 113 101 63 77 75 87 81 72 72 91 130 108 118 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.4 24.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 123 120 120 121 122 122 121 121 123 122 120 120 115 109 115 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -50.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 57 59 62 63 66 65 60 56 50 46 44 46 50 51 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 17 16 16 17 17 18 19 19 18 15 14 11 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 34 34 33 32 28 36 48 59 76 104 124 121 105 103 125 132 120 200 MB DIV 14 -4 -7 -18 -9 1 36 34 46 15 26 37 2 62 26 18 30 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 -1 1 -1 LAND (KM) 2126 2195 2264 2240 2185 2092 2019 1954 1933 1930 1957 2007 2082 2170 2116 1996 1878 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.3 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.0 132.7 133.3 133.9 134.4 135.3 136.0 136.6 136.8 136.8 136.5 135.9 135.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.9 132.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##