* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/18/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 41 43 45 48 51 52 51 48 44 40 37 35 34 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 41 43 45 48 51 52 51 48 44 40 37 35 34 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 40 41 41 41 41 40 38 34 31 26 22 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 9 8 8 11 11 15 17 17 12 16 20 17 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 1 0 4 9 9 4 6 2 0 SHEAR DIR 75 83 108 119 122 108 122 69 65 97 114 124 99 101 117 129 134 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.5 25.6 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 123 124 123 117 115 115 117 117 118 119 120 121 117 118 116 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -51.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -50.9 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 51 52 54 56 58 62 64 65 61 57 54 50 52 60 63 63 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 17 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 19 17 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 33 43 44 39 35 24 27 38 51 72 102 109 88 66 69 91 110 200 MB DIV 27 38 27 3 15 23 27 34 25 50 16 48 26 38 16 29 51 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 4 4 0 0 -4 -3 -10 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1910 1994 2078 2150 2223 2235 2162 2131 2097 2092 2099 2136 2193 2182 2065 1901 1741 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.4 17.1 16.9 16.6 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.0 130.8 131.6 132.3 132.9 133.9 134.6 134.9 135.2 135.2 135.1 134.7 134.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 5 6 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 11. 8. 4. -0. -3. -5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 130.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##