* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/17/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 37 40 45 47 51 50 51 49 50 48 47 46 46 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 37 40 45 47 51 50 51 49 50 48 47 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 38 39 40 39 38 37 35 34 32 30 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 9 11 10 11 14 13 16 18 16 13 15 15 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -2 -5 -4 -4 -5 -1 0 5 3 5 7 7 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 100 105 103 100 102 110 107 120 122 71 89 68 70 69 71 82 113 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 127 126 123 121 120 120 119 117 118 120 120 120 120 121 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 62 59 56 58 59 59 67 67 69 64 61 52 50 51 56 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 16 19 18 20 18 19 18 20 18 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 63 60 56 67 71 61 53 22 26 19 67 97 125 97 81 70 85 200 MB DIV 31 37 34 44 40 20 19 -7 30 23 39 45 52 45 55 42 68 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 2 9 6 3 0 7 1 0 LAND (KM) 1604 1688 1773 1855 1938 2088 2168 2193 2209 2226 2235 2235 2218 2176 2136 2105 2059 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.7 17.5 17.3 17.1 16.6 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.3 128.2 129.0 129.9 131.3 132.0 132.3 132.5 132.7 132.8 132.8 132.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 3 1 1 1 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 3. 5. 3. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 12. 16. 15. 16. 14. 15. 13. 12. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.9 126.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/17/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/17/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##