* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/16/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 40 39 42 43 44 47 48 48 51 52 51 54 55 60 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 40 39 42 43 44 47 48 48 51 52 51 54 55 60 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 38 37 36 36 36 36 36 37 39 40 39 40 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 12 9 8 13 14 5 5 4 9 6 7 3 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -5 0 -2 0 -3 2 2 3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 95 94 105 112 118 91 83 101 75 27 45 2 73 77 192 220 168 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.2 26.0 25.8 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 133 131 131 125 122 120 122 120 118 117 116 115 115 114 114 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 65 64 61 59 60 64 71 73 73 74 73 74 75 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 19 18 19 19 18 19 18 18 19 20 19 21 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR 76 80 77 66 63 57 59 71 67 78 69 64 62 68 75 70 93 200 MB DIV 0 11 26 21 26 34 29 4 9 -7 36 45 38 27 35 32 69 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 1 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1237 1309 1386 1458 1528 1688 1831 1960 2090 2207 2211 2159 2136 2132 2130 2128 2128 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.1 17.9 17.6 17.3 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.6 123.6 124.7 125.7 127.7 129.3 130.6 131.9 133.1 134.0 134.5 134.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 5 3 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. 1. 2. -0. 2. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -3. -2. -1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 6. 9. 10. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.7 121.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/16/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.50 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.95 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.0% 10.8% 7.4% 5.2% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.6% 3.7% 2.5% 1.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/16/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##