* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/15/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 47 45 43 44 46 46 47 49 51 51 48 48 49 51 52 V (KT) LAND 55 51 47 45 43 44 46 46 47 49 51 51 48 48 49 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 47 46 43 43 42 41 42 42 42 40 39 38 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 14 16 13 9 9 12 10 5 10 11 11 10 10 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 3 6 SHEAR DIR 88 99 110 104 124 101 94 71 55 62 18 35 6 356 9 89 96 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 134 133 132 129 124 121 118 120 119 118 118 117 116 116 116 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.7 -51.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 72 68 70 69 63 60 60 66 69 71 70 67 63 60 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 22 23 22 22 22 22 23 22 21 20 19 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 96 97 83 84 81 84 67 73 63 90 88 85 70 61 65 35 11 200 MB DIV 31 7 -5 13 27 39 15 12 0 2 29 16 22 15 29 29 24 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1133 1190 1254 1332 1409 1543 1705 1882 2048 2192 2132 2011 1940 1910 1881 1865 1842 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.2 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.3 17.1 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.8 121.8 122.9 124.0 126.0 128.0 130.0 131.8 133.3 134.7 135.9 136.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 2 1 2 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -12. -11. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -4. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.3 119.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/15/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.12 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.5 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.7% 8.6% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.7% 2.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/15/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##