* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 70 68 65 63 60 59 59 58 59 57 56 57 59 61 V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 70 68 65 63 60 59 59 58 59 57 56 57 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 70 70 68 64 60 56 54 52 52 53 52 49 46 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 17 13 19 12 11 7 9 6 3 6 2 5 8 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 -2 -3 3 2 3 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 78 78 74 88 107 116 106 96 79 41 24 317 219 169 141 148 157 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.4 26.2 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 142 138 133 134 134 127 124 120 121 121 121 120 120 121 121 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 70 68 68 62 59 58 61 64 68 71 74 72 71 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 22 22 21 22 20 20 20 19 19 19 17 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 91 97 93 84 77 82 80 71 77 63 80 71 62 47 37 43 68 200 MB DIV 46 41 45 16 14 8 34 9 49 27 5 24 14 20 25 32 25 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 -3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1038 1092 1154 1220 1294 1469 1612 1759 1911 2045 2161 2231 2164 2090 2029 1977 1917 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.4 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.9 120.0 121.1 122.2 124.5 126.5 128.4 130.1 131.6 132.8 133.6 134.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 17 12 5 5 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.0 117.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/15/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.17 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 22.0% 17.1% 13.0% 8.9% 11.2% 10.3% 8.5% Logistic: 1.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 8.3% 5.9% 4.5% 3.0% 3.8% 3.5% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##