* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 67 70 71 72 71 71 67 67 66 65 62 63 63 64 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 67 70 71 72 71 71 67 67 66 65 62 63 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 63 66 67 68 67 66 64 62 61 60 58 55 52 50 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 18 17 15 9 9 7 5 4 4 9 5 4 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -4 -1 -1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 57 51 64 85 77 90 84 90 74 91 25 353 339 317 329 117 47 SST (C) 28.9 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.6 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 149 146 143 141 132 133 132 126 122 117 119 121 120 119 119 118 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -50.8 -51.6 -51.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 69 69 67 63 57 59 61 67 72 76 77 80 79 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 22 20 22 22 23 22 23 21 21 20 20 19 19 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 84 103 109 113 104 96 98 77 70 63 75 88 80 64 50 48 41 200 MB DIV 43 48 34 28 35 17 19 21 11 37 25 39 56 46 20 6 27 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -1 -3 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 848 924 995 1058 1130 1295 1460 1603 1745 1891 2016 2118 2197 2167 2104 2052 1999 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.2 18.0 17.9 17.8 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.6 117.7 118.9 120.0 122.3 124.5 126.7 128.5 130.1 131.5 132.6 133.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 19 12 10 10 15 4 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 5. 6. 8. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. 16. 12. 12. 11. 10. 7. 8. 8. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.2 115.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.24 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.86 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 29.9% 20.8% 15.4% 10.5% 13.4% 13.8% 11.0% Logistic: 7.9% 10.3% 3.8% 2.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 14.2% 8.3% 6.0% 3.8% 4.9% 4.8% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##