* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/12/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 55 55 55 51 45 37 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 55 55 55 51 45 37 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 55 55 56 53 44 34 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 9 3 11 15 19 17 16 18 27 23 17 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -5 -6 7 4 -1 2 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 242 298 10 9 8 343 339 305 312 340 16 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.4 26.8 26.2 25.6 24.7 24.2 23.6 22.7 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 134 136 136 130 124 117 108 103 97 88 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 31 29 32 34 40 45 45 46 44 46 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 19 20 17 15 13 11 10 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -13 -22 -38 -25 -12 -36 -62 -89 -102 -113 -131 -159 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -23 -14 0 3 -20 -17 -17 -14 -31 -3 -5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 2 2 5 7 1 5 3 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 739 784 833 890 948 1080 1195 1315 1440 1575 1718 1863 1984 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.1 29.6 30.2 30.7 31.9 32.9 33.9 34.9 35.9 36.9 37.9 38.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.3 157.6 157.9 158.1 158.3 158.3 157.9 157.2 156.3 155.1 153.8 152.5 151.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 5 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -9. -14. -16. -16. -18. -21. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -0. 0. -4. -10. -18. -25. -33. -41. -47. -53. -54. -56. -60. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.6 157.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/12/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 532.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/12/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##