* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/10/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 70 66 63 60 61 62 61 54 47 43 37 36 35 34 33 V (KT) LAND 80 75 70 66 63 60 61 62 61 54 47 43 37 36 35 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 73 69 66 62 61 63 64 62 55 47 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 21 21 24 23 20 7 10 13 7 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 5 1 -6 -2 -2 -7 -2 -1 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 233 231 223 231 251 243 257 91 49 37 310 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 26.2 26.0 26.1 26.1 25.7 26.6 27.1 27.5 26.9 26.2 24.4 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 127 124 125 125 121 130 135 139 133 126 107 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 52 48 45 44 37 36 35 45 49 55 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 20 20 18 18 18 20 18 16 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -37 -50 -50 -54 -42 -23 -26 -38 -33 -44 -51 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 20 14 18 -12 -19 -10 -10 -9 -13 -3 3 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 11 9 5 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 524 485 457 452 472 516 619 771 974 1197 1424 1666 1909 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.1 23.8 24.5 25.2 26.5 27.8 29.0 30.4 31.9 33.5 35.3 37.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.7 151.9 153.0 154.2 155.3 157.4 159.4 161.2 163.1 164.9 166.5 168.0 169.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 1 0 3 6 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. -22. -25. -27. -29. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 5. 2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -17. -20. -19. -17. -19. -26. -33. -37. -43. -44. -45. -46. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.3 150.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/10/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 626.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/10/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##