* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/10/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 72 69 67 63 63 62 63 56 49 42 38 36 36 35 35 V (KT) LAND 80 76 72 69 67 63 63 62 63 56 49 42 38 36 36 35 35 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 73 70 67 63 61 60 62 61 58 52 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 17 18 17 24 22 19 7 11 21 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 0 5 -2 -3 -2 -7 -4 -5 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 219 227 220 213 249 216 240 159 76 73 96 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.3 26.3 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 123 122 123 127 127 131 131 132 131 127 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 55 52 49 43 41 39 35 37 41 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 21 21 19 20 18 19 16 15 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -17 -31 -38 -41 -51 -30 -20 -18 -35 -44 -59 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 28 11 21 28 -8 14 -12 17 -22 -9 -18 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 12 10 10 6 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 602 528 478 452 440 477 532 608 733 864 997 1141 1278 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.2 22.8 23.5 24.1 25.4 26.7 27.7 28.7 29.6 30.4 31.3 32.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.4 150.5 151.7 152.7 153.7 155.6 157.5 159.3 160.9 162.3 163.7 165.0 166.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 5 2 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -24. -25. -27. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -2. -5. -5. -9. -10. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -17. -17. -18. -17. -24. -31. -38. -42. -44. -44. -45. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.5 149.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/10/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 613.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/10/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##