* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/09/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 25 26 31 33 34 34 36 35 35 34 34 35 36 36 V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 25 26 31 33 34 34 36 35 35 34 34 35 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 25 22 20 19 18 18 21 24 29 33 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 29 28 26 14 8 10 6 3 3 10 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 4 0 -4 -7 -7 -3 0 2 -2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 287 265 259 241 208 204 208 207 84 95 90 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.4 27.8 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 142 144 142 143 144 148 148 150 143 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 43 47 47 46 51 50 51 51 51 45 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -18 -11 -8 -13 -7 -20 -31 -49 -61 -87 -102 -78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -37 -19 8 6 -9 -19 -8 -16 -7 -1 -16 -16 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 -1 -3 2 -5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 176 194 269 367 472 712 986 1264 1556 1850 2136 2408 2683 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.2 21.8 22.7 23.6 24.6 25.8 27.3 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.2 161.4 162.5 163.6 164.7 167.1 169.8 172.5 175.3 178.1 180.8 183.3 185.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 23 21 25 22 11 20 27 21 13 16 11 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -4. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.2 160.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/09/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/09/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##