* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/08/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 38 34 31 29 30 31 32 33 31 30 29 26 28 29 30 33 V (KT) LAND 45 45 40 37 35 36 38 38 39 37 36 35 32 34 35 36 39 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 38 34 31 27 26 26 28 31 33 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 34 33 26 27 29 10 10 2 5 7 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -9 -6 2 1 -1 -5 -5 -1 -4 1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 323 319 295 278 251 231 202 291 23 60 66 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.5 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 138 140 142 141 139 140 148 150 151 148 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 40 44 45 47 49 49 49 50 49 51 51 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -9 -7 -9 -12 -11 -6 -9 -17 -28 -38 -43 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -52 -17 1 -18 11 -6 -11 -17 -13 -10 5 12 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 0 1 0 0 -2 -2 2 1 7 0 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -2 84 173 203 190 301 536 800 1081 1395 1729 2080 2431 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.0 22.8 23.7 24.6 25.4 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.4 156.8 158.1 159.3 160.5 162.9 165.4 168.0 170.7 173.7 176.9 180.3 183.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 31 32 28 22 13 12 24 30 14 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -14. -16. -15. -14. -13. -12. -14. -15. -16. -19. -17. -16. -15. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.2 155.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/08/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 388.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/08/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##