* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/08/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 52 49 47 45 46 45 44 44 46 48 49 48 48 48 48 V (KT) LAND 60 50 52 49 47 46 46 46 44 44 46 48 49 48 48 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 60 50 52 49 47 44 42 42 44 49 54 60 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 30 34 28 25 21 13 7 7 2 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -8 -4 4 3 -4 -5 -4 -3 0 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 310 324 320 298 259 247 199 222 242 168 330 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.3 27.7 28.2 28.6 28.0 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 135 136 139 140 141 142 138 142 148 153 147 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -1.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 41 44 45 51 49 49 47 50 50 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -4 -7 -10 -13 -11 -7 0 -4 -18 -27 -44 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -39 -40 -7 -6 -27 -7 -20 -18 -5 -12 1 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 2 0 1 -1 -4 -5 1 -5 4 0 6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 76 -7 132 203 236 263 441 652 914 1214 1540 1891 2232 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.8 22.8 24.0 25.4 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.4 155.8 157.2 158.5 159.8 162.1 164.3 166.5 169.1 172.0 175.1 178.4 181.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 12 13 15 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 12 32 31 20 24 9 16 30 24 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. -14. -12. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.9 154.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/08/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 525.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/08/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##