* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 99 96 91 80 73 69 65 63 63 63 67 67 66 66 66 V (KT) LAND 100 101 99 96 91 80 73 69 65 63 63 63 67 67 66 66 66 V (KT) LGEM 100 99 95 90 85 75 68 62 58 58 59 63 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 4 4 16 9 11 13 16 8 10 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 1 3 0 -3 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 299 305 297 255 254 259 264 247 266 199 269 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.3 25.2 25.4 25.2 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 117 119 117 121 123 123 130 131 132 134 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 57 55 55 55 58 54 50 46 42 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 29 27 27 26 25 25 23 23 23 22 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -2 -4 -6 -5 -11 -21 -37 -54 -56 -45 -46 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 40 22 23 53 22 7 -9 10 5 13 -14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -6 1 4 9 7 7 2 1 2 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1745 1583 1420 1259 1097 785 499 315 213 204 212 323 465 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 19.4 20.4 21.5 22.5 23.5 24.1 24.4 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.4 139.9 141.4 142.9 144.4 147.3 150.1 152.6 155.1 157.6 159.9 161.9 163.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 12 10 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -23. -29. -34. -38. -42. -44. -44. -46. -48. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -8. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -9. -20. -27. -31. -35. -37. -37. -37. -33. -33. -34. -34. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.3 138.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/08/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 663.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/08/14 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 84 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##