* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/07/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 88 86 82 74 68 66 62 61 63 63 66 66 66 66 67 V (KT) LAND 90 90 88 86 82 74 68 66 62 61 63 63 66 66 66 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 90 89 86 82 78 70 63 58 55 53 55 59 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 5 2 3 4 14 14 10 14 10 9 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 0 2 1 -3 -1 -5 0 -1 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 330 272 315 273 246 266 228 260 255 239 244 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.3 25.7 25.8 26.2 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 117 118 118 119 118 122 123 127 130 130 133 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 58 59 55 53 55 55 52 49 45 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 28 27 26 25 25 24 22 23 22 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -5 -4 -4 -11 -6 -14 -22 -43 -51 -42 -44 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 65 29 11 11 50 16 18 -16 18 10 -11 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 -2 3 7 5 9 6 0 1 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1898 1731 1564 1407 1250 935 638 394 251 197 178 248 400 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.9 19.8 20.9 21.9 22.9 23.7 24.2 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.0 138.5 140.1 141.5 143.0 145.9 148.7 151.3 153.9 156.4 158.7 160.7 162.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 3 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -29. -32. -34. -35. -36. -38. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -8. -10. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -8. -16. -22. -24. -28. -29. -27. -27. -24. -24. -24. -24. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.0 137.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/07/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 578.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 6.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/07/14 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 36 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##