* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/07/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 87 87 84 77 71 67 62 60 57 59 60 59 59 59 60 V (KT) LAND 85 88 87 87 84 77 71 67 62 60 57 59 60 59 59 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 85 87 86 83 79 72 65 59 54 51 50 52 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 3 1 4 5 12 9 17 11 18 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 0 2 4 0 0 -3 0 0 -7 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 22 20 5 291 237 259 254 277 248 247 245 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.8 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.2 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 123 117 117 118 117 121 123 125 130 130 131 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 58 55 54 51 53 54 51 48 43 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 27 27 26 25 24 24 22 22 20 21 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -6 -10 -6 -7 -11 -14 -21 -40 -50 -59 -40 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 61 54 11 -3 42 25 22 -18 16 0 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -2 0 8 6 4 4 0 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2038 1870 1702 1540 1379 1064 764 489 299 230 235 256 409 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.4 21.5 22.8 23.8 24.5 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.7 137.3 138.8 140.3 141.8 144.7 147.5 150.2 152.8 155.3 157.7 159.9 161.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -18. -22. -25. -27. -29. -30. -32. -33. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. 2. -1. -8. -14. -18. -23. -25. -28. -26. -25. -26. -26. -26. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.8 135.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/07/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 556.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 5.1% 4.2% 3.5% 1.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 9.3% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/07/14 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 2 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##