* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/07/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 80 76 72 62 55 49 44 39 36 33 33 32 32 32 34 V (KT) LAND 85 83 80 76 72 62 54 49 43 39 36 33 32 32 31 32 33 V (KT) LGEM 85 85 82 79 76 67 61 56 51 48 45 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 13 21 36 29 23 24 21 18 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -4 -1 -7 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 3 341 322 307 323 309 251 222 208 208 153 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.7 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 127 129 133 138 140 140 139 140 141 145 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 -53.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -0.8 -0.9 -0.5 -1.1 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 37 36 36 34 38 41 49 51 53 51 53 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 16 15 12 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 27 14 15 11 -6 -11 -12 -16 -22 -23 -49 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -33 -44 -28 -7 -30 -4 -10 -5 -8 0 -29 -16 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 7 6 7 8 5 -3 -2 0 -1 0 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 706 532 357 180 7 106 90 244 483 725 979 1225 1478 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.4 20.2 21.0 21.6 22.3 22.9 23.6 24.4 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.3 149.9 151.5 153.2 154.8 157.8 160.4 162.6 164.9 167.2 169.6 171.9 174.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 14 12 11 11 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 6 25 25 21 15 11 14 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -17. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -23. -30. -36. -41. -46. -49. -52. -52. -53. -53. -53. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.9 148.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/07/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.02 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 853.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/07/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##