* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/07/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 76 77 77 75 71 68 66 65 64 65 66 66 66 67 67 V (KT) LAND 70 73 76 77 77 75 71 68 66 65 64 65 66 66 66 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 73 72 69 64 60 56 53 51 52 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 3 3 2 3 6 5 10 5 5 2 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 0 0 2 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 59 83 307 294 294 232 276 209 203 193 215 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.2 25.6 25.3 25.6 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 123 123 124 117 121 118 120 125 126 129 130 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 61 57 55 55 53 55 55 56 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 27 26 26 25 24 24 23 22 21 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 7 0 -8 -9 -11 -13 -13 -18 -31 -47 -61 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 62 44 41 42 3 30 51 41 1 14 -12 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -1 1 10 11 12 8 8 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2208 2227 2059 1891 1723 1408 1106 816 549 325 230 271 331 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.4 20.3 21.3 22.5 24.0 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.4 134.0 135.5 137.0 138.6 141.5 144.3 147.0 149.6 152.3 154.8 157.1 159.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.2 132.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/07/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 26.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 10.6% 7.6% 5.8% 2.0% 4.0% 1.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 12.5% 2.6% 1.9% 0.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/07/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##