* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/06/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 73 70 67 62 53 46 40 36 35 35 38 37 38 38 39 V (KT) LAND 80 76 73 70 67 62 53 46 40 36 36 36 38 38 38 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 73 70 67 62 57 53 49 45 42 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 11 9 8 20 33 31 27 14 11 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -3 -1 -2 -8 0 1 3 -6 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 29 20 20 347 320 287 317 316 287 289 296 287 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.1 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 127 125 127 131 136 141 142 143 142 143 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 44 41 39 40 43 45 52 50 51 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 18 16 15 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 38 29 17 10 -8 -9 0 -6 1 -9 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -36 -42 -29 -36 -24 -38 -9 -10 -3 -36 -16 -37 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 12 11 10 12 9 3 -4 -7 -3 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1050 876 703 537 372 75 102 197 226 429 668 903 1152 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.5 22.2 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.2 146.8 148.4 150.0 151.5 154.3 157.0 159.5 162.0 164.3 166.7 169.0 171.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 1 0 1 7 11 28 18 18 12 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -13. -18. -27. -34. -40. -44. -45. -45. -42. -43. -42. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.0 145.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/06/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 703.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/06/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##