* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/06/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 53 50 44 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 53 50 44 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 45 44 39 34 29 23 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 49 56 62 65 64 72 89 80 77 75 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -3 -10 -8 -6 -18 -8 -4 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 245 239 237 241 244 256 264 279 283 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 27.0 24.6 24.8 23.1 17.6 15.1 16.6 15.7 18.6 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 129 107 109 97 77 73 75 74 80 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 115 96 97 87 72 69 71 71 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -52.8 -51.7 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 58 59 61 62 63 57 52 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 18 19 19 19 20 23 18 17 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 37 71 91 80 92 49 45 92 102 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 99 114 106 91 90 50 -6 -12 -31 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 22 23 14 26 30 19 -18 1 14 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 476 462 440 394 369 257 690 1185 1425 896 439 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.1 39.4 40.8 42.2 43.5 46.0 47.5 48.1 48.4 48.4 48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.9 64.3 61.6 58.7 55.8 49.9 43.6 36.9 29.5 21.5 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 25 25 25 25 23 23 24 26 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 22 CX,CY: 18/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. -0. -5. -17. -35. -52. -64. -77. -89.-101.-118.-128.-134.-138. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 8. 1. -1. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 5. -1. -12. -34. -51. -62. -75. -88.-105.-116.-122.-127. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 38.1 66.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/06/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 68.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/06/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/06/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 52 53 50 44 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 50 47 41 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 41 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 33 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT