* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/06/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 67 75 80 88 89 85 80 74 71 70 68 68 68 69 70 V (KT) LAND 55 60 67 75 80 88 89 85 80 74 71 70 68 68 68 69 70 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 64 68 72 76 77 76 72 66 62 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 9 6 4 3 4 5 4 7 6 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 0 -1 1 5 5 -1 -1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 22 38 9 328 31 26 293 360 315 7 31 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.4 25.8 26.2 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.4 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 141 137 131 129 123 127 122 122 123 128 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 65 65 66 65 63 61 60 58 57 58 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 25 27 28 29 27 27 26 25 24 25 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 19 22 24 12 9 4 9 6 3 -15 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 61 69 64 62 26 42 -1 19 19 12 27 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -6 0 4 3 -2 -1 2 7 7 7 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1922 2020 2105 2203 2307 2034 1718 1407 1102 805 533 307 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.5 19.4 20.4 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.8 128.4 129.9 131.5 133.0 135.9 138.8 141.7 144.5 147.2 149.7 152.0 154.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 14 11 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 20. 25. 33. 34. 30. 25. 19. 16. 15. 13. 13. 13. 14. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.2 126.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 7.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 288.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 9.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 7.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 52.3% 40.1% 24.6% 16.5% 18.3% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 17.7% 45.6% 31.5% 26.4% 16.9% 22.4% 6.8% 1.4% Bayesian: 1.5% 10.5% 4.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 11.4% 36.2% 25.3% 17.6% 11.2% 13.8% 8.1% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##