* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/05/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 59 63 69 73 74 72 70 70 70 72 72 73 74 76 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 59 63 69 73 74 72 70 70 70 72 72 73 74 76 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 54 57 60 64 65 65 63 60 57 56 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 7 8 10 8 4 9 7 6 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 4 1 -1 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 31 26 35 32 20 17 1 351 337 3 280 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.2 26.5 26.1 26.3 25.7 25.7 26.1 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 141 137 127 130 126 128 122 122 126 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 67 65 68 66 64 62 62 60 55 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 25 26 27 27 27 26 25 25 24 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 27 21 17 20 25 8 2 -9 -7 -4 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 46 40 39 48 52 10 6 17 16 38 13 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -1 1 4 0 -4 -1 3 5 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1808 1902 1998 2079 2167 2240 1928 1614 1303 1009 703 407 180 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.4 19.4 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.7 128.1 129.6 131.1 134.0 136.9 139.8 142.7 145.4 148.2 150.9 153.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 14 15 14 14 13 14 13 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 13 12 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 23. 24. 22. 20. 20. 20. 22. 22. 23. 24. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.0 125.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 25.4% 19.9% 14.7% 10.3% 13.0% 15.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 11.0% 5.8% 3.3% 2.6% 2.7% 1.9% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 12.5% 8.6% 6.0% 4.3% 5.2% 5.8% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##