* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/05/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 48 57 66 74 90 98 102 100 101 100 98 94 91 87 85 82 V (KT) LAND 40 48 57 66 74 90 98 102 100 101 100 98 94 91 87 85 82 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 53 60 68 87 104 116 120 119 115 110 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 8 7 6 6 9 4 11 6 15 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -2 -1 -1 -4 0 -1 3 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 113 87 82 65 31 38 358 319 292 260 222 220 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.5 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 150 150 153 150 154 153 156 157 155 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -52.2 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -50.4 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 70 70 69 67 61 61 59 58 59 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 24 26 30 32 34 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 106 104 103 99 95 82 88 91 119 122 135 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 71 62 59 46 64 72 96 78 70 47 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 3 9 14 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1751 1828 1912 2006 2107 2306 2488 2627 2727 2797 2842 2873 2882 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.1 14.1 15.2 16.4 17.9 19.9 21.9 23.9 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 172.4 173.8 175.1 176.5 177.9 180.5 182.8 184.6 186.0 187.1 187.8 188.3 188.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 14 13 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 42 43 59 70 54 45 39 54 55 47 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 23. 25. 26. 28. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 24. 24. 21. 19. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 26. 34. 50. 58. 62. 60. 61. 60. 58. 54. 51. 47. 45. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.2 172.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/05/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 64.0% 85.6% 77.9% 70.2% 72.2% 69.4% 59.2% 48.6% Bayesian: 51.1% 91.9% 88.2% 82.4% 76.8% 95.1% 92.0% 27.3% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/05/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##