* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/05/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 62 68 73 76 77 75 75 72 70 70 71 73 75 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 58 62 68 73 76 77 75 75 72 70 70 71 73 75 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 57 59 64 66 68 67 65 62 58 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 10 6 7 10 5 6 8 12 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -1 -1 1 0 1 5 2 0 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 5 14 19 32 33 56 21 9 321 313 317 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.8 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 141 141 132 129 126 129 126 125 123 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 66 67 66 68 64 62 61 61 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 24 25 26 27 27 27 26 26 25 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 31 27 23 16 24 23 12 1 1 4 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 37 47 33 54 55 21 30 26 24 34 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -7 -3 1 1 -3 -2 1 1 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1732 1820 1915 2012 2098 2291 2060 1749 1451 1152 838 503 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.6 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.4 126.8 128.3 129.8 132.8 135.7 138.6 141.4 144.2 147.1 150.1 152.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 13 14 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 7 6 7 14 3 1 0 2 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 9. 9. 7. 7. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 26. 27. 25. 25. 22. 20. 20. 21. 23. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.8 124.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.89 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 25.3% 20.2% 15.0% 10.6% 13.3% 16.2% 12.5% Logistic: 0.9% 3.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 1.4% 2.9% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 9.9% 7.3% 5.3% 3.7% 4.9% 6.4% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##