* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/05/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 102 95 87 81 75 67 61 54 50 49 46 45 47 49 52 54 V (KT) LAND 110 102 95 87 81 75 67 61 53 50 49 46 45 46 49 51 54 V (KT) LGEM 110 102 94 87 80 71 65 62 58 57 56 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 13 6 7 5 16 19 14 14 15 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 -4 0 -1 0 -7 -2 0 4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 225 203 208 202 67 334 322 330 322 313 315 327 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 130 129 127 126 123 130 136 140 141 141 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 45 45 41 37 36 36 37 41 47 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 25 23 23 22 19 18 16 15 15 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 39 51 62 70 72 57 45 28 16 18 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 28 15 -13 -26 -43 -26 -20 -7 0 -30 -18 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 7 12 16 17 11 11 11 1 -2 -2 -7 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1719 1600 1481 1323 1165 817 471 124 80 142 236 472 728 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.0 140.1 141.2 142.7 144.1 147.3 150.5 153.7 156.8 159.7 162.4 164.8 167.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 14 15 16 16 16 15 13 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 3 14 24 18 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -17. -25. -33. -39. -43. -47. -49. -50. -51. -52. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -10. -14. -16. -15. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -23. -29. -35. -43. -49. -56. -60. -61. -64. -65. -63. -61. -58. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.9 139.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 854.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 52 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##