* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/05/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 54 55 55 69 77 79 78 80 78 77 76 77 79 81 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 54 55 55 69 77 79 78 80 78 77 76 77 79 81 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 53 54 58 66 69 67 66 65 63 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 N/A N/A 11 7 9 8 9 10 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 N/A N/A 1 0 -1 1 2 -1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 42 33 24 N/A N/A 11 47 38 359 13 310 303 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.4 26.7 26.4 26.5 26.1 25.9 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 143 144 142 139 129 132 129 131 126 124 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 N/A N/A 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 N/A N/A 69 68 67 63 62 63 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 LOST LOST 16 27 28 27 26 27 27 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 32 N/A N/A 29 31 25 12 10 18 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 53 39 N/A N/A 46 25 30 30 -25 38 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -7 N/A N/A 0 -1 -5 -4 1 2 12 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1685 1766 1855 1954 2052 2221 2233 1921 1613 1287 966 640 338 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.0 124.4 125.7 127.1 128.5 131.3 134.2 137.1 140.0 143.1 146.1 149.1 151.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 13 7 7 8 12 1 3 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. 7. 11. 10. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 19. 27. 29. 28. 30. 28. 27. 26. 27. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.5 123.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.3 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.3 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.85 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 25.4% 20.4% 15.3% 10.8% 12.8% 16.2% 12.5% Logistic: 1.7% 7.0% 3.1% 1.6% 2.8% 1.8% 3.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 11.0% 7.9% 5.7% 4.5% 4.9% 6.4% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##