* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/05/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 103 96 89 83 73 72 66 58 51 46 43 40 42 44 46 48 V (KT) LAND 110 103 96 89 83 73 72 66 52 51 46 43 40 42 44 46 48 V (KT) LGEM 110 102 93 85 78 70 69 66 55 57 53 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 11 10 N/A N/A 4 4 3 13 20 16 21 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 N/A N/A -2 0 1 1 0 6 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 141 269 233 N/A N/A 58 75 290 270 303 299 319 340 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.4 26.4 25.9 25.8 26.3 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 128 129 129 124 124 128 135 139 140 142 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 N/A N/A -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 1.0 N/A N/A 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 N/A N/A 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 47 N/A N/A 40 38 35 37 39 42 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 LOST LOST 16 21 20 17 15 13 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 38 43 N/A N/A 84 74 54 46 13 2 -3 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 20 -25 N/A N/A -35 -37 -15 -18 4 -43 -4 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 8 N/A N/A 10 14 7 4 1 -6 -7 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1791 1689 1586 1445 1305 966 609 250 -40 112 143 388 656 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.6 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.3 139.3 140.2 141.5 142.8 145.9 149.2 152.5 155.6 158.6 161.4 164.0 166.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 13 14 15 17 15 15 14 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 2 2 1 0 0 1 8 24 21 19 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -17. -25. -33. -39. -44. -47. -50. -50. -51. -53. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 1. -0. -1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -6. -9. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -27. -37. -38. -44. -52. -59. -64. -67. -70. -68. -66. -64. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.9 138.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.3 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 796.3 816.2 to -81.4 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 52 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##