* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/05/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 58 56 50 40 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 58 56 50 40 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 57 56 54 48 42 36 31 27 25 23 22 22 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 24 33 N/A N/A 61 68 73 71 68 65 55 46 49 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A 0 -10 -8 -8 -6 -1 4 12 6 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 270 259 N/A N/A 228 231 236 252 267 274 261 255 254 253 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.3 26.5 24.5 21.9 17.0 15.5 16.0 15.6 17.7 17.7 17.9 18.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 130 132 123 106 91 76 74 75 74 77 75 74 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 117 115 117 109 95 83 72 71 71 71 72 69 68 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 N/A N/A -53.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -52.3 -51.7 -50.2 -49.6 -48.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 7 N/A N/A 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 58 N/A N/A 57 58 65 64 58 58 51 37 37 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 LOST LOST 6 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -25 -15 N/A N/A 72 93 102 73 72 120 155 218 149 161 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 40 62 N/A N/A 101 91 105 66 24 -8 15 36 7 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 7 12 N/A N/A -6 -21 18 -13 35 0 -94 -77 -6 -20 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 395 390 454 518 439 384 322 206 702 1284 1250 713 320 81 87 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 34.1 35.6 37.1 38.5 41.2 44.0 46.5 48.1 48.8 49.3 49.8 50.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.1 71.9 70.7 68.8 66.9 62.0 56.4 50.4 43.4 35.5 27.5 19.8 13.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 20 21 22 24 25 25 26 26 26 22 16 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 23 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 21 CX,CY: 4/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -28. -30. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -18. -30. -42. -49. -58. -66. -72. -80. -85. -89. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -20. -28. -41. -54. -67. -78. -86. -96.-101.-105.-108. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 32.6 73.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.3 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 311.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 12.5% 8.6% 7.1% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.4% 3.0% 2.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 59 58 56 50 40 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 59 58 56 50 40 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 53 47 37 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 42 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT