* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 53 64 73 77 85 91 93 96 94 93 93 92 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 53 64 73 77 85 91 93 96 94 93 93 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 44 55 67 80 92 100 103 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 3 6 5 7 7 9 10 6 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -4 -6 -5 -1 -7 -1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 81 94 105 94 50 54 31 336 344 323 294 285 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.3 28.3 29.0 28.9 29.2 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 153 154 149 149 156 155 158 152 153 155 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 69 70 72 73 74 68 65 63 63 64 64 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 15 16 17 18 22 27 29 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 108 107 105 99 96 84 81 76 92 103 103 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 127 84 41 25 29 26 56 55 93 84 61 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -6 -8 -5 -2 -3 0 0 1 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1529 1583 1651 1729 1819 2013 2223 2454 2671 2856 2717 2568 2430 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.2 13.1 14.0 14.8 15.7 16.6 17.7 19.0 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.1 169.6 171.1 172.6 174.1 176.9 179.6 182.3 184.8 186.9 188.8 190.3 191.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 16 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 31 36 44 37 63 62 62 42 42 40 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 12. 19. 20. 21. 19. 17. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 23. 34. 43. 48. 55. 61. 63. 66. 64. 63. 63. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.3 168.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/05/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.3% 16.1% 11.1% 5.2% 5.0% 8.2% 13.3% 28.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.4% 2.5% 0.4% 0.3% 2.0% 9.6% 16.5% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##