* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 63 63 63 62 56 45 36 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 63 63 63 62 56 45 36 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 63 62 62 64 66 61 50 40 33 28 25 24 23 22 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 22 25 35 52 62 65 77 83 92 91 78 60 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -3 -2 1 -9 -6 -15 -13 -19 -11 2 12 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 305 282 268 258 243 240 244 256 268 278 279 275 266 258 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 25.0 18.8 14.8 15.9 15.3 15.6 17.3 17.7 18.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 134 130 131 130 130 110 81 73 74 73 73 76 77 79 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 119 116 116 116 116 99 75 69 70 69 69 71 72 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -53.0 -52.3 -51.7 -51.1 -50.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.7 -0.9 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.5 0.9 1.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 63 59 55 58 58 63 68 62 50 45 40 42 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 13 14 18 20 20 18 19 16 19 22 25 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -40 -28 -18 -9 33 77 95 68 60 67 129 154 137 121 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 46 40 57 55 89 114 65 62 27 14 -12 -26 -3 24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 16 13 15 9 17 12 21 27 40 32 -22 -42 -17 -21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 556 470 424 485 573 495 380 145 434 917 1389 1250 781 328 108 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 32.0 33.5 35.0 36.4 39.1 42.1 45.4 47.7 48.8 49.3 49.3 49.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.4 72.6 71.9 70.5 69.0 64.6 59.2 53.2 47.0 40.5 34.0 27.5 20.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 19 20 24 26 26 23 22 21 22 22 22 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 8 7 12 18 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 18 CX,CY: 2/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -18. -22. -27. -31. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -24. -34. -43. -54. -66. -77. -87. -92. -97.-102. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 5. 6. 1. 4. 8. 10. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -9. -20. -29. -46. -57. -67. -77. -90. -96.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 30.5 73.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.37 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.24 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 363.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 9.5% 6.6% 5.8% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.3% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 62 63 63 63 62 56 45 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 63 64 64 64 63 57 46 37 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 62 62 61 55 44 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 55 54 48 37 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT