* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 98 97 94 86 76 69 62 54 49 45 44 44 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 100 99 98 97 94 86 76 69 62 54 49 45 44 44 45 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 100 99 96 92 88 80 73 65 56 49 44 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 2 3 10 12 12 10 13 10 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 0 -3 -4 3 2 -1 -5 -2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 35 96 95 55 149 202 227 205 175 183 200 206 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.2 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.8 26.1 26.5 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 130 130 129 125 129 126 124 123 127 131 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 60 58 55 50 44 40 37 35 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 27 27 26 25 24 22 19 18 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -17 -8 -2 2 38 66 88 90 75 52 46 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 38 45 45 38 56 35 12 -39 -27 -20 -33 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -2 -1 0 3 10 14 19 12 6 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2310 2225 2125 2041 1957 1788 1597 1348 1067 750 408 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.7 19.7 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.2 134.2 135.1 135.9 136.7 138.3 140.1 142.4 145.0 147.9 151.0 154.3 157.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 10 12 14 15 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 3 3 3 1 3 1 0 0 0 3 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -18. -25. -31. -36. -39. -42. -43. -44. -46. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -14. -24. -31. -38. -46. -51. -55. -56. -55. -55. -53. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 15.7 133.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/03/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.03 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 496.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.36 -2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 18.5% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 6.5% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/03/14 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 11 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##