* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 34 37 46 56 65 75 81 86 89 91 90 89 88 87 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 34 37 46 56 65 75 81 86 89 91 90 89 88 87 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 29 30 34 40 50 63 79 92 103 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 11 9 4 5 6 9 6 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -3 -4 -6 -5 -6 -6 -4 -6 -9 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 92 91 81 86 102 73 65 76 69 35 27 322 295 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.0 28.2 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 149 149 148 149 145 148 153 155 157 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 68 69 69 72 75 77 76 74 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 13 15 18 21 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 75 88 93 94 89 81 69 62 64 61 55 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -8 -15 3 26 41 88 94 94 50 46 43 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1061 1142 1234 1307 1389 1493 1544 1635 1772 1948 2165 2395 2654 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.8 10.6 11.5 12.5 13.6 14.6 15.5 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.9 160.3 161.6 162.8 164.1 166.5 168.8 171.2 173.8 176.5 179.3 182.0 184.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 37 47 49 46 34 28 31 37 57 58 49 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 14. 13. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 16. 26. 35. 45. 51. 56. 59. 61. 60. 59. 58. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.9 158.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.1% 10.9% 2.5% 1.4% 0.7% 2.7% 9.8% 24.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.7% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##