* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 46 52 60 67 69 68 63 60 45 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 46 52 60 67 69 68 63 60 45 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 43 47 51 56 60 60 57 50 41 33 29 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 20 16 12 15 11 16 20 37 51 56 65 72 79 90 87 79 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -4 -5 -2 -1 -2 -2 1 1 1 -2 -3 -4 -11 -17 -10 -3 SHEAR DIR 312 326 334 333 327 324 284 248 245 244 250 267 274 281 292 295 298 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.2 28.8 27.5 27.1 27.1 26.8 24.5 20.7 17.2 16.7 17.5 17.4 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 149 152 157 150 133 128 129 126 105 85 75 75 77 77 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 142 143 146 136 119 114 114 110 92 77 71 70 72 72 74 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -54.5 -54.0 -53.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 7 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 58 58 62 63 66 66 70 70 66 64 64 56 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 13 15 17 18 22 20 17 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -76 -93 -89 -90 -39 -52 -16 0 42 54 38 -24 -44 -15 35 4 200 MB DIV 9 10 35 59 52 74 54 52 60 70 58 62 32 0 -35 -40 -31 700-850 TADV 0 6 8 6 11 24 19 26 4 24 32 54 47 28 -3 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 49 189 322 424 537 630 504 528 572 499 473 315 466 843 1298 1407 958 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 21.5 22.8 24.2 25.6 28.7 31.7 34.5 37.2 39.7 41.9 43.9 45.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.5 71.6 72.7 73.3 74.0 74.0 72.5 70.1 66.7 62.3 57.5 52.5 47.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 15 17 18 20 21 21 20 20 21 22 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 53 60 53 52 66 26 8 7 7 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 18 CX,CY: -13/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 16. 14. 11. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -9. -17. -26. -37. -51. -66. -77. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 13. 8. 3. -2. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 27. 29. 28. 23. 20. 5. -14. -33. -48. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.2 70.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.35 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.69 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.45 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 13.5% 8.9% 6.6% 5.9% 9.9% 11.8% 14.1% Logistic: 1.2% 4.8% 2.3% 1.3% 0.4% 3.3% 5.0% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.2% 3.8% 2.6% 2.1% 4.5% 5.6% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 44 46 52 60 67 69 68 63 60 45 26 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 44 50 58 65 67 66 61 58 43 24 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 46 54 61 63 62 57 54 39 20 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 38 46 53 55 54 49 46 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT